Was Peter There For the Right Reasons?

I promise this blog will be something more than statistical commentary on reality TV.  I’m working on some other things which aren’t finished yet, and given the recent conclusion of The Bachelorette season 13, I think a follow-up to my first post is warranted.

As with the most recent season of The Bachelor, I again recorded every mention of the words “Connection” and “Love” throughout the show’s 10* episodes, in an attempt to quantify the unquantifiable – love! relationships! all that jazz!

In my view, the word “connection” is often used on the show as a more acceptable word to describe the early stages of a relationship, whereas “love” obviously suggests a more serious relationship.  So if we track the usage of both of these words throughout the show, we get this:

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As the show progresses, relationships grow stronger, and so do the words used to describe those relationships; as time goes on, “love” is more heavily favored over “connection”, and used in greater frequency.  This is similar to what we saw during The Bachelor season 21:

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I made one significant improvement to my data collection for The Bachelorette: I recorded the specific contestant who was saying the word, or referenced by the word (in cases where Rachel is the one saying “connection” or “love” ABOUT a specific person).  For reasons of practicality, I did this starting with episode 6, so I have that data for the final 5 episodes.

What does this mean for you?  Well, it means we can explore the drama surrounding the nightmarish season finale, of course!

Didn’t watch the show?  Well, basically there is/was a lot of drama surrounding the fan-favorite Peter, who professed his love to Rachel but fell short of a promise to propose, and for this reason was kicked to the curb.  The morning following their tearful breakup, Rachel accepted a proposal from Peter’s romantic rival Bryan.   Not the ending America (nor Rachel?) was hoping for.

But hang on – Peter wasn’t prepared to propose?  Why did he sigh up for a reality show about proposing, then?  This wasn’t lost on Rachel, nor many in the public, who suspect that Peter’s stint on the Bachelorette could be a stepping stone for him to later emerge as the new “Bachelor”.  Of course, the data I collected cannot prove this.  But it does illustrate that there was something different about Peter.

Let’s explore some numbers on the final 3 contestants: Bryan, Peter, and Eric.

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Uh oh Peter, bad news – throughout the final 5 episodes, he used the words “connection” and “love” at roughly half the frequency of his two primary rivals.  Could this mean that he was comparatively less enthusiastic about his relationship with Rachel?  Perhaps.  It could also simply reflect differences in the communication styles of these 3 men.  Part of Peter’s appeal to Rachel (America presumes) was his soft-spoken, logical approach to love.  By contrast, Bryan and Eric are much more passionate individuals.

Ok, what if we look at the proportions in usage of “connection” and “love” for all 3 men?

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More bad news for Peter…  Not only does he utter positive descriptors like “connection” and “love” less than Bryan and Eric, he also has a higher frequency of using the weaker descriptor, “connection”.  Of course, this is also in-line with what Peter was explicitly projecting on camera: that he needed more time, that he is cautious, that he was not quite ready to commit to a proposal.

Here is a more granular view of this data by episode, using stacked bars so we have visibility of individual contestant word usage:

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“Hey – what about Eric?” you might be thinking.  It didn’t work out for him – eliminated in the second-to-last rose ceremony – but by the numbers it appears his relationship with Rachel was the strongest.  Or at least, it reflects that HE felt that way.  Data only gets us so far, especially when dealing with matters of the heart.

In defense of Peter, he may have been behind his peers in terms of building a relationship with Rachel, but it did appear that he truly was in love with her, and genuinely interested in seeing where things went.  As you can see below, he was on his way to getting there.

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Unfortunately for Peter, he ran out of time, and there was also this other guy named Bryan who was a bit more enthusiastic.

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Maybe Rachel is right, and Peter’s approach to love just isn’t suited to reality TV; maybe the show’s not for him.  Maybe he needs more than 10 weeks of periodic courtship sprints whilst surrounded by rival boyfriends in order to decide on a lifelong commitment – maybe that’s not a recipe for love that works for him.  What a weirdo.

A few methodological notes for those inclined:

  1. As I am a mortal human man, it is possible I may have missed an utterance of “connection” or “love” here and there.
  2. The * next to “Episode” in several graphs indicates that I took some liberties with the episode number.  In the actual show there are really 11 episodes; episode 10 was excluded as this was the “Men Tell All” episode, which transpired outside of the story arc of the main show.  Additionally, I should note that episode 11 (episode 10 for the purposes of this analysis) was 3 hours instead of the usual 2.  This episode was unusual because it involved cutting away from the content to go to live commentary by the bachelorette herself, as well as guest appearances by the 3 men.  As these “live” portions took place outside of the main show timeline, any usage of “connection” and “love” was not counted.
  3. During data collection I did consider the context of the word usage, especially in the case of “love”, as there are many common circumstances for using this word in a way that does not relate back to any ongoing relationships on the show.  For example, “I love you mom” and “I love this song” did not get counted as valid.

Until next time.